Coach Duel

Let's be clear about this, as a long-time Munster fan, I've never called myself a long-time sufferer.  Under the auspices of European rugby success, Munster transcended their underdog status in the 2005-6 season, when they were victorious over Biarritz in the Heineken Cup final.  The very next year, almost overnight in terms of rugby, Munster not only were wearing a European crown, but also bore the mantle of European heavyweights.  No longer tagged with the underachiever status, this team was now a valuable scalp to be had by any and all opposition.

Unfortunately, after a record-breaking and supporter-shattering early exit from the Heineken Cup this year, Munster seem to have finally buckled under the many criticisms levelled at them by various commentators voicing the widely held belief that Munster's quality of play has dwindled over the last two seasons.

If we are to agree that Munster's demise from opening pubs on Good Friday to becoming the red button option on Sky Sports has been more than an overnight event, then one does not have to cast an analytical eye too far to discern one possible cause of this downfall.  Tony McGahan took over from Declan Kidney at the start of the 2008-9 season, and Munster went in that same season from Heineken Cup champions to Magners League title holders.  A step down, most would agree.  Admittedly landing back to back cups is extremely difficult (managed only by Leicester in 2000-1, 2001-2), but in the following article we shall examine how statistics back up that many more steps have been descended during Tony McGahan's tenure to date. 

Number crunching Munster's fixture list from current and past seasons, and accounting for friendly, Celtic/Magners League and Heineken Cup games, we shall analyse the success rate of both coaches over a three season period.

In 2005-6 Declan Kidney came back to Munster after a stint coaching in Leinster and duly helped Munster win the Heineken Cup for the first time.  Kidney had a win:loss ratio of 23:10, winning 23 out of 33 games - a win percentage of 69.69% of all games played during this season.  We can break this down as follows:

• Celtic League: won 60% of all games, finished 3rd overall
• Heineken Cup: won 88.89% of all games, got bonus points in 2 out of the 6 group stage games, champions of Europe
• friendly matches: won 50% of all games

In 2006-7 Kidney and Munster were less successful, whereby Leicester smashed Thomond Park's previously indomitable fortress 6-13.  Kidney had an overall win percentage of 60.71% in his second season:

• Magners League: 60%, finished 6th
• Heineken Cup: 71.43%, bonus points in 3 out of the 6 group stage games, beaten quarter finalists
• friendly match: lost the only friendly match

In 2007-8 Kidney and Munster returned to glory, winning the Heineken Cup 16-13 against fellow heavyweights Toulouse.  Kidney had an overall win percentage of 68.97% (excluding one draw) in his final season:

• Magners League: 58.82% (excluding one draw), finished 3rd
• Heineken Cup: 77.78%, bonus points in 3 out of the 6 group stage games, champions of Europe
• friendly matches: 100% of all games

For Kidney's three seasons in charge, his total win percentage was 66.67%, which can be broken down as follows:

• Celtic/Magners League: 59.65%
• Heineken Cup: 80%
• friendly matches: 66.67%

In 2008-9, Tony McGahan was promoted from defence and backs coach to director of coaching following Kidney's departure to coach the Irish national side.  In his first season the Australian won 75.86% of all games played:

• Magners League: 82.09%, won Magners League title
• Heineken Cup: 75%, bonus points in 3 out of the 6 group stage games, beaten semi finalists 6-25 to Leinster
• friendly matches: 66.67% (were it not for the monumentally entertaining 16-18 loss to New Zealand this figure would be 100%)

In 2009-10, McGahan had an overall win percentage of 60%:

• Magners League: 52.63%, beaten semi finalists to Leinster 16-6, finished 4th
• Heineken Cup: 75%, bonus points in 4 out of the 6 group stage games, beaten semi finalists
• friendly matches: 66.67%

During the current and unfinished 2010-11 season, McGahan and Munster have won 72.73% of all games played to date:

• Magners League: 84.62%, currently 1st
• Heineken Cup: 50%, bonus points in 4 out of the 6 group stage games, did not qualify from group stages for the first time in 13 years
• friendly matches: 66.67% (including beating Australia 15-6)

For McGahan's tenure to date, his total win percentage is 69.14%, which can be broken down as follows:

• Magners League: 70%
• Heineken Cup: 68.18%
• friendly matches: 66.67%

This compiled data shows us the value of Kidney when it comes to cup games. Both coaches have identical records when it comes to friendlies, McGahan even edges Kidney by 2.47% when it comes to overall win percentage, due in no small part to McGahan's superior record in the Magners League (10.35% better in fact).  However the Heineken Cup is seen as the real measure of success, and Kidney brought it back to Munster in 2 out of the 3 seasons he was in charge.

Ironically enough, even though Munster currently sit atop the Magners League table, there is no guarantee of it staying this way, especially since the introduction of the playoff system in 2009-10 when McGahan and Munster lost the Magners League semi final to Leinster 16-6.  Conversely, Kidney's record in cup games such as the Heineken Cup is far superior, consistently qualifying from the group stages with a win percentage nearly 12% above that of McGahan.  This has nothing to do with bonus points (in fact, McGahan actually accumulated 3 more than Kidney did), but rather Kidney's superior performances away from home.

During each of Kidney's 3 Heineken Cup campaigns at least 3 away games were won (average of 37.5% of all wins in the Heineken Cup were away), whereas McGahan won only 2 away games in 2008-9, 2009-10, and won none away this season (average of 18.18% of all wins in the Heineken Cup were away for McGahan).  Admittedly, if McGahan and Munster lost away, they generally procured a losing bonus point (the only time this did not occur in fact was against Toulon this season).

Outwardly this seems strange, that a coach like McGahan can have such a high success rate in the league, yet not be able to translate that into cup success.  It has often been said that Munster vs. Leinster games are akin to cup games, so I thought analysing both coaches respective performances might shed more light on this.

Whereas in Kidney's first season Munster beat Leinster 6-30 away in the Heineken Cup semi final, in McGahan's first season Munster lost 6-25 to Leinster at "home" in Croke Park.  Kidney beat Leinster 3 out of the 7 times they met (42.86%) whereas Munster have failed to beat Leinster since that semi final under McGahan's reign, only beating them 2 out of the 6 times they've crossed paths so far (33.33%).  Hopefully on the first weekend of April Munster can put a stop to this 5 game winning streak of Leinster's, and bring McGahan's win percentage against Leinster up to that of Kidney.

Players must also be held accountable, and this too shall be analysed somewhat more subjectively as we look at the transfer activity of the coaches.